A consultation with European fishermen, advisory councils and social partners has been key to an assessment conducted by Tetra Tech and partners, contracted by the European Commission, to explore a variety of scenarios the European fishing sector could experience in the years leading up to the middle of the current century.
The Commission states that the study’s findings, along with discussions during and after the closing event, will inform the reflections planned throughout 2025 on the European Oceans Pact and the evaluation of the common fisheries policy (CFP) regulation. These elements will serve as a foundation for shaping a future vision for fisheries in 2040.
The Fishers of the Future study has developed four potential secnarios, based on the expertise and insight of those consulted, and two primary axes – the extent of climate and biodiversity changes in marine ecosystems and consumer demand within market dynamics. Each scenario encompasses a complex interplay of other factors such as the geopolitical landscape, interactions with other coastal activities, the use of technologies, operational costs, recruitment challenges and other factors. Small-scale and large-scale fisher profiles were developed, considering the potential effects of the various scenarios on their activities.
Of the four scenarios, the most positive is of a responsibly thriving industry, in which the EU fishing industry has adjusted well to challenges, while there is a high demand for EU-caught fish.
A second scenario outlines a sitiation with declining stocks and climate change challenges, with a high demand for EU-caught seafood.
The third situation details contested markets, with moderate climate change and low demand for EU-caught fish, while the worst scenario is one of scarce fish stocks coupled with low demand for EU-caught fish.
‘The Fishers of the Future findings will help us address our biggest challenge: how to ensure long-term competitiveness and sustainability for the fishing sector,’ said Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans Costas Kadis.
‘We have several concrete scenarios and profiles to consider. As we shape our policy in the coming months, we must take into account the trends and potential challenges described and leverage this knowledge to secure a thriving sector and a healthy marine environment for generations to come.’
The Commission will host an event on the morning of Tuesday, 14th January, in Brussels and online.
This will focus on discussing future scenarios and profiles of fishers and exploring how they can contribute to building pragmatic solutions for the challenges the sector is facing.
