The IFFO conference in Tokyo has taken place against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, climate uncertainty, and shifting trade dynamics, with industry leaders and scientists reaffirming their commitment to evidence-based decision-making.
While a central theme of the three-day conference was the critical role of industry in supporting effective fisheries management measures there was a focus on the growing need for a realistic approach to how aquafeed ingredients are assessed – and a warning that much is likely to change from mid-century onwards.
Dr. Christopher Free, a researcher at the University of California – Santa Barbara, predicted that depending on emissions of greenhouse gases, small pelagic stocks will likely reduce by around 5%, although small migratory fish species are likely to see a less marked impact than higher trophic species. He outlined a two-phase shift.
‘We’ll see gradual change until 2050, and then strong change,’ he said, and stressed the importance of adaptability, urging the industry to ‘diversify the portfolio of fish species that are targeted and utilised,’ and to reconsider facility locations based on emerging climate science.
He also warned of physiological changes in marine life.
‘Fish will get smaller in the future. Their oxygen demand will increase, while oceans will hold less oxygen as they get warmer,’ he said, predicting that fish stocks are likely to continue a polewards shift to track cooler water, such as with West African forage fish moving northward.
He drew attention to intensifying winds in most upwelling systems over the past 60 years, and while global Earth System Models predict reduced winds and upwelling intensity, local predictions remain unclear and could have a greater impact.
An example of this unpredictability can be seen with the unprecedented suppression of Panama Current upwelling in 2025 due to reduced winds. Another example of misunderstood climate impacts has been seen with Pacific Sardine recruitment, which was thought to be high in warm years, and yet the population collapsed during a heatwave in 2015.
Christopher Free’s recommendation for how the industry can respond to this uncertainty was first to end overfishing to increase profits and resilience. He recommended the use of management strategy evaluations to identify climate-robust harvest strategies and prepare for shifting stocks.
‘This industry has a pivotal role in food security over the next century, you are at the forefront of ensuring sustainable growth and can adapt to these climatic changes,’ he told the IFFO delegates, and advocated for closer collaboration between scientists and fishermen to develop early warning indicators and improve gear and catch limit management.
