A new study shows that tackling sustainable fisheries management and climate change together can result in significant increases of food, fish and economic activity, but nations need to act quickly to realise these gains.
The study by EDF and leading scientists details how the world’s oceans have the potential to be significantly more plentiful than today even with climate change, provided good management practices are put in place and warming is held to no more than 2°C.
The study, conducted by leading scientists from the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB), the US National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Hokkaido University and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), shows that compared to today, estimated future global outcomes include a US$14 billion increase in profits, 25 billion additional servings of seafood, and 217 million more tonnes of fish in the sea; almost a third more fish than exist today, despite a global temperature rise of 2°C.
The study cautions that these results depend on implementing fisheries management that addresses climate-driven changes in species productivity and geographical range distribution as well as limiting warming from emissions to that level. Inaction on fisheries management and climate change will mean net losses of fish as the planet’s population grows.
‘Some aspects of the results of this study are surprisingly positive. If we can adopt sustainable
fishing policies and keep global warming to no more than 2°C, we could still see significant benefits to fisheries in Europe and across the globe,’ said Baroness Bryony Worthington, Executive Director of EDF Europe.
‘But there is no room for complacency as these benefits only occur through action. This study serves as a further wakeup call for us to put in place policies to help prevent future conflicts, and better secure our food supply and livelihoods for generations to come.’
Big movers
In Europe, the impacts of climate change on commercially vital fish species is already being seen – with recent research indicating that 16 out of 21 of the most valuable fish species in the North-East Atlantic are already swimming outside of their traditional areas.
Of these 16, nine are considered ‘big movers’ these nine species represent roughly 50% of the landed value of the North-East Atlantic catch.
New US research examines potential future outcomes for 915 fish stocks across the world under alternative management and climate scenarios. The authors model climate change’s impact on fishery productivity and geographical range distribution, which affects how many fish are available and where they can be caught, under four climate projections. These range from a global temperature rise of 1°C (strong climate mitigation) to a rise of 4°C (business-as-usual) by 2100. For each of these climate scenarios, the authors examine future biomass, harvest and profit under alternative management approaches using a bio-economic modelling approach.
The study predicts that roughly 50% of species examined will shift across national boundaries and nearly all are expected to experience changes in productivity in response to rising ocean temperatures. These changes will present new challenges for fishing nations.
The study found that implementation of management practices that account for changes in productivity and geographic range distribution can lead to global gains in profits, harvest and biomass compared to today.
These practices include flexible management strategies, including the creation and improvement of existing governance institutions to deal with fish distribution such as multilateral fishery agreements, and responsible harvest policies that account for changing stock productivity.
Equatorial nations take the biggest hit
While improved management may lead to improved global outcomes, the outcomes will vary regionally. The results indicate that future fishery profits are expected to decline in tropical latitudes even with management that fully adapts to the climate challenges. This means equatorial nations, many of which have developing economies and are highly dependent on seafood as a source of food and income, will be hardest hit.
‘Even with the right management changes, there will be winners and losers, and we have to tackle this head on,’ said Steve Gaines, the study’s lead author and Dean of the Bren School of Environmental Science at UCSB.
‘Success will require not only emissions reductions but also multilateral cooperation and real changes in fisheries management. With our growing global population and the increasing needs for healthy sources of protein, these changes will be critical for meeting the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals.’
The impacts of inaction are also clear. Billions of people rely on fish as an important source of protein, and right now 845 million people face serious malnutrition worldwide, which in part can be attributed to poorly managed fisheries.
According to EDF, if nothing changes, 80% of the world’s fisheries will be in serious trouble by 2030. Most fishing nations are not responding fast enough to create change and successful transboundary management programs are relatively rare. But action doesn’t take long to have an impact on some species. Studies have demonstrated that many fisheries can bounce back from overfishing in as little as ten years under the right policies.
‘Climate change is expected to hit hardest in many of the places where fisheries are already poorly managed – things are likely to get a lot worse if we don’t act,’ said Christopher Costello, an author of the paper and a professor of environmental and resource economics at UCSB.
‘We can expect inaction to bring increased conflict and potential overfishing as fish move into new waters along with threats to food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable places.’
‘Fishermen are the first responders to climate change, and this research confirms what they are already seeing on the water,’ said Katie McGinty, Senior Vice President, EDF Oceans programme. ‘The window is narrow, but we have the tools and a clear roadmap to build a future with more fish, more food and more prosperity – if we act now.’
‘Even with the right management changes, there will be winners and losers, and we have to tackle this head on,’ said Steve Gaines, the study’s lead author and Dean of the Bren School of Environmental Science at UCSB
