Research by the North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group (NAPA) is the basis of a warning that Atlanto-Scandian herring in the Northeast Atlantic could face a potential repeat of the 1960s herring collapse if governments do not take steps to stop overfishing.
NAPA has consistently warned that key north Atlantic pelagic stocks are over-exploited and has pointed out longstanding failures of management – and commissioned its own research in order to strengthen its case, just as governments again meet to discuss management of these stocks.
In collaboration with Ray Hilborn, Professor of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at the University of Washington, NAPA has determined the timeframe for Atlanto-Scandian herring to reach a critically low threshold under current levels of overfishing. Named the ‘Biomass limit reference point’ – or Blim – this threshold defines the danger zone for a stock, the point beyond which its reproduction is at risk, a state that should be avoided at all costs.
‘Atlanto-Scandian herring could reach Blim as early as 2026, assuming the continuation of current levels of overfishing without any significant changes to recruitment. That would present politicians, the market and fishing communities with serious problems,’ said NAPA Project Lead Neil Auchterlonie, commenting that the outlook for Atlanto-Scandian herring is alarming.
NAPA states that fishing pressure exceeded scientific advice by 30%-37% between 2020-2022, while ICES describes the stock as “slowly decreasing”, and last year set the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for 2024 at 390,010 tonnes – a sharp decrease of 24% compared to 2023.
‘The buck stops with Coastal State governments. Their inability to agree on sustainable quota sharing arrangements in line with scientific advice is pushing more than one renowned fish stock into dangerous waters,’ Neil Auchterlonie said.
‘Atlanto-Scandian herring, along with Northeast Atlantic mackerel and blue whiting, are being fished according to unilateral quotas that are set by individual nations. The result? Overfishing. The herring stock is heading for Blim in two years, and mackerel and blue whiting are likely not far behind.’
