The price of fish products fell by 0.6% in January from the previous month measured in foreign currency (SDR). However, product prices in foreign markets are still close to a historical high and have risen by almost 6.4% in the last 12 months. The price of demersal products is particularly high at present. Our calculations are based on recent figures from Statistics Iceland on the average price of all types of seafood products and changes in the exchange rate of major currencies.
Mixed outlook
External conditions for seafood companies are mixed at present. Seafood companies have suffered a cut in the cod quota in the current fishing year, which of course is not in their favour. In addition, the price of oil is still rising. High product prices in foreign currency and depreciation of the ISK recently can be said to be the reason why the performance of seafood companies is still tolerable. It is positive that the capelin quota has been re-allocated.
SEE LIVE OIL PRICE HERE
Wild catch a luxury
The supply of wild fish has generally not increased worldwide recently, but demand is high. However, a substantial increase in aquaculture (including in Asia) means that the overall supply of marine products has increased significantly. It seems that wild catch is increasingly considered a luxury good. This should sustain the high product price in foreign markets and is positive development for Icelandic seafood industry.
The ISK TW index 130 at year-end
Our exchange-rate forecast assumes a somewhat weaker ISK at the end of this year (ISK TW index 130). That exchange rate is acceptable for the fishing industry. (VH)
