Scientists have ongoing concerns about the Barents Sea cod stock and the situation remains serious. That’s the message as advice is delivered for the 2026 north-east Arctic cod quota, although reseachers consider that rock bottom has now been reached.
‘The spawning population is now below the precautionary level. Therefore, the quota advice is for a further reduction,’ said researcher Bjarte Bogstad at the Institute of Marine Research, which has recommended a NE Arctic cod quota not exceeding 269,440 tonnes for 2026.
This is a figure that’s 14% down on the advised quota or 2025 and 21% lower than the quota set for the current year. This is the lowest advised quota since 2002 and if the politicians follow the scientific advice, the quota for 2026 will be the lowest since 1991.
Recomended quotas and actual quota levels have been on a downward trend between 2021 and 2024 by around 20% annually.
‘This is due to the fact that the cod spawning stock has been reduced every year since the historic peak in 2013. We now consider that the bottom has been reached,’ Bjarte Bogstad said, pointing out that while the fishable stock in 2025 has been adjusted downwards from last year, the future outlook has changed little.
‘2025 and 2026 appear to be the years with the lowest spawning stock, and the quota advice is expected to increase somewhat in 2027 and later years, if this year’s advice is followed,’ he said.
‘There has been poor recruitment for several years, but the weakest year classes are 2019 and 2020 – those that should have entered the fishery last year and this year. The incoming year classes starting in 2021 have been adjusted upwards, and the 2021 year class is around average, while the subsequent ones are below average, but not as weak as the 2019 and 2020 year classes.’
The recommendation for north-east Arctic haddock is for catches to not exceed 153,293 tonnes in 2026. This is 43% up on the quota advice for 2025, and 18% higher than the set quota for 2025.
‘The three weak year classes 2018, 2019 and 2020 are now fully integrated into the fishable stock,’ Bjarte Bogstad explained.
‘However, the 2021-2024 year classes are slightly above average, so for haddock there is potential for a further increase in catches after 2026. But it is important to take care of these incoming year classes.’
