As per the information available this new system can prevent dangers at sea caused by icing conditions, which can coat a vessel’s deck and rigging with heavy ice that alters stability and increases the likelihood of capsizing. The Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System, developed in part by SMAST scientists Changsheng Chen and Brian Rothschild and WHOI scientist Robert Beardsley, uses a mix of ocean and weather models to generate three-day forecasts for icing potential, water temperature, wind speed and other conditions in Northeast coastal areas.
This new system allows forecasters to make detailed predictions about weather and ocean conditions within specific bodies of water, such as Buzzards Bay or Georges Bank. A Coast Guard report, issued a year after the sinking, confirmed that ice buildup on the 75-foot dragger’s rigging and superstructure had most likely caused the vessel to roll over and sink about 12 miles off Hyannis.
The researchers said that they plugged those values into an existing formula to calculate the predicted icing rate for vessels traveling in different areas of Nantucket Sound. They concluded that the Lady of Grace was likely “steaming into waves in an area with mid-moderate up to heavy icing rates” at the time of its disappearance.
According to a paper written by Dr. Chen and Dr. Beardsley the predicted conditions were consistent with the Coast Guard’s conclusion that the Lady of Grace experienced rapid icing that caused it to capsize. Dr. Beardsley, a physical oceanographer for WHOI informed that they came up with something from the model, which seems quite plausible with what actually happened.
Joseph DelliCarpini, science and operations officer at the weather service in Taunton, said the agency plans to evaluate their system this winter as it monitors icing conditions. He added that the new forecast system could help with that. The Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System has other practical applications such as aiding in Coast Guard search and rescue missions.
