It is said that if such huge return of spring Chinook to Columbian River happens it would be the largest run in 71 years. According to fishery scientists some 470,000 spring chinook will return to the Columbia River next year, which would be the largest run since 1938. This prediction has sent a wave of good news to sport, tribal and commercial fishermen who all place a high value on chinook, considered one of the finest-tasting salmon in North America.
Scientists who advise Columbia River fish mangers have struggled in recent years to come up with accurate run predictions, which have been based heavily on the numbers of immature jack males that return to the river each year. Stuart Ellis, a fishery scientist with the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, said that based on the jack model, the past several years of forecasts have overstated actual runs by about 45 percent.
Ellis also said that the number of jacks that returned in 2009 was four times greater than anything we’ve seen before, which made the number a statistical anomaly. The new forecast is based on an expanded set of models. Accurate forecasts are necessary to set harvest at levels that meet treaty obligations and conservation requirements under the federal Endangered Species Act.
