At Aqua Nor’s finance seminar one expert said that global salmon production could rise by 15 percent in 2012, largely driven by a 60 percent growth in Chile. Keynote speaker Professor Frank Asche said world production of Atlantic salmon will hit almost 1.8 million metric tons next year. This will push the growth to en estimated 230,000 metric tons, or close to a 15 percent increase, from 2011 to 2012.
Similar forecast was provided in Kontali Analyse reports where its managing director Ragnar Nystoyl said that supply could be of a size that has not been seen for some years, but 2012 is a long way off still, and conditions can change. The concrete forecast says growth in Norway from this year to 2012 will be around 10 percent, to some 1.07 million metric tons of Atlantic salmon.
Corresponding figures for Chile are estimated at 60 percent growth. This would take production from 188,000 metric tons in 2011 to 299,000 metric tons of Atlantic salmon in 2012. The figure is based on the prerequisite that both production in Chile and Norway happens smoothly. A 15 percent global growth would put pressure on prices, First Securities financial analyst Henning C. Steffenrud said. His estimate for 2012 has been an average price of NOK 27.50 (€3.51/$5.06) per kilo.
