With the livelihoods of millions of fishery-dependent people at risk, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva has appealed to the international community to provide adequate support to help countries adapt and urged governments to resolve adaptation funding disputes.
New analysis and modelling released today by FAO and more than a hundred collaborating scientific projects indicate that by 2050 climate change will have altered the productivity of many of the planet’s marine and freshwater fisheries, affecting the livelihoods of millions of the world’s poorest people.
Nearly 60 million people are employed in fisheries and aquaculture, and climate change poses significant risks to their livelihoods.
The productive potential of fisheries inside EEZs could decline and the planet’s critical but often-overlooked inland water systems, which include five of the world’s least-developed countries among its top ten fish producers and provides 11.6 million tonnes of food for human consumption each year, will also be affected, according to the FAO report.
Projected impacts are linked to changes in water temperature and pH levels, shifts in ocean circulation patterns, rising sea levels and altered rainfall and storm patterns causing species to change their distributions and productivity, corals to bleach, and aquatic diseases to become more common, among others.
A series of case-studies focuses on challenges, as well as adaptation solutions already being explored, in 13 major marine areas ranging from the Arctic to the Mediterranean.
A key chapter provides adaptation toolboxes and options to help countries cope, in ways that will also allow them to meet their adaptation commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement.
The report claims that if these are appropriately implemented, the impacts of climate change can be minimised.
In particular José Graziano da Silva urged governments on the board of the UN’s Green Climate Fund to resolve their disagreements over funding, commenting that the failure of the board during its meeting last week to agree on any big-ticket decisions, and in particular on the replenishment of the fund, means it could run dry next year.
‘We are running the risk of having the most powerful element of the Paris Climate Agreement completely exhausted,’ José Graziano da Silva warned.
‘When we signed the Paris Agreement, it was a sina qua non condition that if we don’t help poorer countries to adapt then we will not be successful in implementing the agreement.’
Ocean change
In one modelling exercise in the FAO report, based on the IPPC’s RCP2.6 ‘mitigation’ scenario, fisheries production in marine EEZs would drop by between 2.8 and 5.3% by 2050. Under another, the RCP8.5 ‘business as usual model,’ the decrease could range from 7 to 12.1% by 2050.
The most significant decreases are expected in the EEZs of countries in the tropics, mostly in the South Pacific, while in higher latitude regions catch potential will likely increase.
The report points out that even in areas where productivity will be negatively affected, catches of fish could still grow, as long as nations implement adequate adaptation measures and effective fisheries management regimes.
Changes in catch levels will occur in part as a result of fish species changing their geographic distributions to respond to climate change. This has already been well documented in the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic, and also for high-value tuna.
Changes in the distribution and migration patterns of this wide-ranging fish could significantly affect the national incomes of tuna-dependent countries, particularly Pacific region small island developing states.
As distribution shifts play out, new arrangements between fishers within national fishing fleets as well as between countries will be needed to allow for coordinated responses, the report warns.
Inland waters and aquaculture at risk
Productive impacts to inland water systems will vary from place to place, but no world region will be untouched. The FAO report provides estimates how climate, water use and population stress in 149 countries will change, and explores the future evolution of the Yangtze, Ganges, and Mekong rivers in Asia, the Congo River Basin and the Great Lakes system in Africa, in Europe, Finland’s inland lakes, and in South America, the La Plata and Amazon River Basins.
In the case freshwater aquaculture, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Lao PDR and China are estimated to be the most vulnerable countries, while for marine aquaculture, Norway and Chile, due to the scale of their marine fish farming systems and their reliance on just a few species, are most vulnerable.
Options for adaptation
According to the FAO, a range of fisheries management tools already exist that can be used to respond to climate change, but many will need to be retooled to respond to specific needs in specific contexts.
To ensure adaptations are synergistic and do not lead to maladaptation, FAO groups these into three categories: institutional and management responses, strengthening and diversifying people’s livelihoods,and mitigating risk and supporting resilience.
The challenge of climate change can be met, according to FAO, and its new report indicates how to do so effectively, while minimising impacts and maximising opportunities.
