El Niño continues to have a significant impact on global marine ingredient production, primarily by reducing raw material availability in Peru and Chile. Lower raw material availability in South America, Northern Europe and some Asian countries accounts for much of the anticipated decline.
According to IFFO, Peru has been particularly affected, with significant implications for global supply given that the country typically accounts for around 20% of world fishmeal production. The quota for the first 2026 North-Central anchovy season was set at 1,914,049 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 27% of the estimated biomass.
Fishing activity was repeatedly interrupted by closures before being suspended on 10th June, with only about 25% of the quota caught. Consequently, Peruvian marine ingredient production has remained well below historical levels so far in 2026. El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and are forecast to persist into early 2027, while the North-Central fishery has been closed.
Chile has also faced challenging fishing conditions, with catches during the first part of 2026 remaining well below the previous year’s levels and a high incidence of juveniles further constraining fishing activity.
Northern Europe has experienced lower raw material availability as well, contributing to the decline in global marine ingredient production, although this reduction is unrelated to El Niño.
The outlook for the full year will increasingly depend on production during the second half of 2026, when marine ingredient output typically strengthens in important producing countries such as Morocco, China, India and Oman. The performance of these regions will therefore play an important role in determining the extent to which lower production elsewhere can be offset and, ultimately, the overall global production outcome for 2026.
China’s imports of marine ingredients are constrained by the reduced global production. The supply of raw materials for marine ingredients production will rely on local production when the fishing season starts in August and September. The initial estimates indicate that domestic output of marine ingredients in the first half of 2026 is better than the levels seen a year earlier. According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, aquafeed production reached 11.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, representing a 17.4% year-on-year increase, and supporting an increase in domestic aquaculture production from approximately 29.9 million tonnes in the first half of 2025 to around 31.1 million tonnes during the same period in 2026.
Following global supply constraints, fishmeal consumption from the aquaculture sector in the first half of 2026 is estimated to have been slightly weaker than a year earlier but has remained relatively resilient so far.
